The myth of the magic number.
Every generation hears one. Every generation believes it. Every generation arrives at sixty and discovers the math was always asking for four times more.
| When you were 40, they said — | When you turned 60, you needed — | The gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Monthly expense | The "magic number" | Year | What it actually took | |
| 1986 | ₹2,000 | ₹10 lakh | 2006 | ₹40 lakh | 4× |
| 2006 | ₹30,000 | ₹1 crore | 2026 | ₹6 crore | 6× |
| 2026 | ₹2,00,000 | ₹10 crore | 2046 | ₹40 crore | 4× |
Calculations assume 9% lifestyle inflation, 7% post-retirement return, retirement to age 90.
In 1996, conveyance meant a two-wheeler and the train. Today the same household runs on cars and aeroplanes. The line item didn't get more expensive — the line item changed.
LTCG on equity was zero. Tax on dividends in the investor's hands was zero. Today, LTCG on equity is 12.5% (above ₹1.25L) and dividends are taxed at slab rates.
Life expectancy moved from 60 to 75 in two decades. With AI breakthroughs like protein folding unlocking cures, is it really outrageous to plan to 90?
Can equities really deliver 12% for the next two decades? Past performance is not the worst place to start, but it isn't a forecast either.
The 9% isn't a guess.
Since 1972, the Government of India has measured what households actually spend. Eleven surveys, 51 years of data — the answer has been almost the same number every time.
| Year | Per-capita / month | Family of 4 / month |
|---|---|---|
| 1972–73 27th round | ₹54 | ₹215 |
| 1977–78 32nd round | ₹83 | ₹330 |
| 1983–84 38th round | ₹139 | ₹556 |
| 1987–88 43rd round | ₹204 | ₹816 |
| 1993–94 50th round | ₹369 | ₹1,477 |
| 1999–00 55th round | ₹671 | ₹2,682 |
| 2004–05 61st round | ₹806 | ₹3,222 |
| 2009–10 66th round | ₹1,518 | ₹6,072 |
| 2011–12 68th round | ₹1,927 | ₹7,707 |
| 2022–23 HCES | ₹4,712 | ₹18,847 |
| 2023–24 HCES (latest) | ₹5,128 | ₹20,512 |
If anything, the 9% is on the low side for the affluent household — the basket weighs healthcare and education far less than what an upper-middle-class family actually spends on them.
The number we keep arriving at is the number we'd like to be true. The actual number — the one inflation, longevity and the math demand — has always been about four times larger. Whoever you were at 40, whatever decade you were in.
Source. NSSO Household Consumer Expenditure Surveys, rounds 27–68; MoSPI Household Consumption Expenditure Survey factsheets 2022-23 and 2023-24. Per-capita figures are all-India averages weighted across rural and urban populations. Family-of-four figures derived as 4× per-capita.
Run the numbers yourself.
Change any input. The math walks itself out underneath — no black box.
How we got there
How do we get there?
The corpus is the goal. The SIP is the path. See what monthly investment — given what you already have — bridges the distance.
How we got there
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